Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 4.39 to 5.73 on expected goals, with 99.7% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Bayer 04 Leverkusen host 1. FC Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 5 September at 13:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 4.39 for the hosts and 5.73 for the visitors, a combined 10.13 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
- FC Union Berlin are a clear favourite at 59.3%, with the draw back at 12.2%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — last 10: L-D-L-W-W-L-W-W-D-D (most recent first). That is 22 scored and 18 conceded, 2.20 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 9 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-W-L-W-D across 5, 13 scored and 8 conceded.
1. FC Union Berlin — last 10: D-W-W-D-L-L-L-D-L-W (most recent first). That is 17 scored and 19 conceded, 1.70 and 1.90 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-L-L-L-W across 5, 6 scored and 11 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 4, 1. FC Union Berlin 1, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 21 Feb 2026: 1. FC Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 10.13 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
- FC Union Berlin carry the larger share of that expectation, at 5.73 against 4.39. Both teams to score sits at 98.4%, and over 2.5 goals at 99.7% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 28.6% |
| Draw | 12.2% |
| 1. FC Union Berlin win | 59.3% |
| Both teams to score | 98.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 99.7% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 4-5 at 3.3%, 4-6 at 3.2%, 3-5 at 3%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 84.8% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.57, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. 3.8 points above the outside consensus.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 72.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.1 against a league baseline of 3.8. 7.6 points above the outside consensus.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 70.4% confidence. Expected total goals 3.50, from 2.37 - 1.12 (Bundesliga baseline 1.59 per side). 2.4 points above the outside consensus.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 65.4% confidence. Expected goals 2.37 - 1.12, so the weaker attack still projects 1.12 goals. 4.6 points below the outside consensus.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 63.5% confidence. Expected goals 2.37 - 1.12 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; Bayer 04 Leverkusen rate 0.59 clear on the fitted ratings. 11.5 points above the outside consensus.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 63.5% confidence. Expected goals 2.37 - 1.12 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; Bayer 04 Leverkusen rate 0.59 clear on the fitted ratings. 11.5 points above the outside consensus.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 62.5% confidence. Expected corners 10.1 against a league baseline of 9.8. In line with the outside consensus.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 47.9% confidence. Expected goals 2.37 - 1.12, which projects a 34% chance of a level score at the break.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 47.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.57 before the break and 1.92 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. 5.2 points below the outside consensus.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 4-5 — an 1. FC Union Berlin win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 3.3%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts an 1. FC Union Berlin win at 59.3%, with the draw at 12.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
