Mirassol FC vs EC Vitória prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.36 to 1.11 on expected goals, with 44.9% for over 2.5 goals in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Mirassol FC host EC Vitória in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, kicking off Saturday 12 September at 00:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.36 for the hosts and 1.11 for the visitors, a combined 2.47 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
Mirassol FC hold the edge at 40.9%, but not by enough to treat the result as settled.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Mirassol FC — last 2: L-D (most recent first). That is 1 scored and 3 conceded, 0.50 and 1.50 per game. Both teams scored in 1 of the 2, and 0 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D across 1, 1 scored and 1 conceded.
EC Vitória — last 1: L (most recent first). That is 1 scored and 2 conceded, 1.00 and 2.00 per game. Both teams scored in 1 of the 1, and 1 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L across 1, 1 scored and 2 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.47 goals in this fixture, below the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A norm of 2.70, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
Mirassol FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.36 against 1.11. Both teams to score sits at 51.5%, and over 2.5 goals at 44.9% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Mirassol FC win | 40.9% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
| EC Vitória win | 28.9% |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 14.4%, 0-0 at 10.1%, 1-0 at 9.8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 72.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.9 against a league baseline of 3.9. Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 70.2% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.22, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 58.4% confidence. Expected corners 9.6 against a league baseline of 9.6. Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 51.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.49 - 1.23, so the weaker attack still projects 1.23 goals. Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 49.2% confidence. Expected total goals 2.72, from 1.49 - 1.23 (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline 1.40 per side). Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.4% confidence. Expected goals 1.22 before the break and 1.50 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 42.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.49 - 1.23 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.40 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 42.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.49 - 1.23 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.40 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 33.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.49 - 1.23, which projects a 41% chance of a level score at the break. Mirassol FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-0 — a Mirassol FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 9.8%.
Confidence: Low. The model puts a Mirassol FC win at 40.9%, with the draw at 30.2%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 14.4%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and on a fixture priced this close that is a live possibility.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
