Guaranteed Correct Synthetic Precision
Premier League Sat, Aug 29, 11:30 GMT
Liverpool FC crest
Liverpool FC D L W W W L D L D D
VS
FEATURED MATCH
Nottingham Forest FC crest
Nottingham Forest FC D W D W W W D L D L
H2H
Head to Head Record
6 meetings on record — 3 · 1 · 2 see them
Model Verdict · First Half Over 0.5 Goals
1H Over 0.5
The record behind the preview

Form, Head-to-Head & Goal Expectation

20 completed matches · 6 previous meetings
Liverpool FC Home
Last 10 · any opponent
D L W W W L D L D D
  • 23 Aug 2026 A Newcastle United FC 2-2 D
  • 24 May 2026 H Brentford 1-1 D
  • 15 May 2026 A Aston Villa 2-4 L
  • 9 May 2026 H Chelsea 1-1 D
  • 3 May 2026 A Man United 2-3 L
  • 25 Apr 2026 H Crystal Palace 3-1 W
  • 19 Apr 2026 A Everton 2-1 W
  • 11 Apr 2026 H Fulham 2-0 W
  • 21 Mar 2026 A Brighton 1-2 L
  • 15 Mar 2026 H Tottenham 1-1 D
17–16
Scored / Let in
1
Clean sheets
6/10
Over 2.5
At home only: D-D-W-W-D across 5, 8 scored and 4 conceded.
Season rate 2.00 scored · 2.00 conceded / game
Nottingham Forest FC Away
Last 10 · any opponent
D W D W W W D L D L
  • 22 Aug 2026 H Leeds United FC 0-1 L
  • 24 May 2026 H Bournemouth 1-1 D
  • 17 May 2026 A Man United 2-3 L
  • 10 May 2026 H Newcastle 1-1 D
  • 4 May 2026 A Chelsea 3-1 W
  • 24 Apr 2026 A Sunderland 5-0 W
  • 19 Apr 2026 H Burnley 4-1 W
  • 12 Apr 2026 H Aston Villa 1-1 D
  • 22 Mar 2026 A Tottenham 3-0 W
  • 15 Mar 2026 H Fulham 0-0 D
20–9
Scored / Let in
3
Clean sheets
5/10
Over 2.5
Away only: L-W-W-W-D across 5, 15 scored and 6 conceded.
Season rate 0.00 scored · 1.00 conceded / game
Expected goals 1.77 total · Premier League norm 2.84
1.62
0.15
Likeliest scorelines 1-0 27.1% 2-0 22.3% 0-0 17.6% no single scoreline is ever likely on its own
Head to head domestic league meetings · cups and Europe not included
3
Liverpool FC
1
Drawn
2
Nottingham Forest FC
  • 22 Feb 2026 Nottingham Forest FC 0-1 Liverpool FC
  • 22 Nov 2025 Liverpool FC 0-3 Nottingham Forest FC
  • 14 Jan 2025 Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 Liverpool FC
  • 14 Sep 2024 Liverpool FC 0-1 Nottingham Forest FC
  • 2 Mar 2024 Nottingham Forest FC 0-1 Liverpool FC
  • 29 Oct 2023 Liverpool FC 3-0 Nottingham Forest FC
GUARANTEED CORRECT EDITORIAL & AI ANALYSIS

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict

Our model makes it 1.62 to 0.15 on expected goals, with 26.1% for over 2.5 goals in the Premier League.

630 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis

Match Overview & What Is At Stake

Liverpool FC host Nottingham Forest FC in the Premier League, kicking off Saturday 29 August at 11:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.62 for the hosts and 0.15 for the visitors, a combined 1.77 goals against a competition norm of 2.84.

Liverpool FC are a clear favourite at 74.9%, with the draw back at 22.5%.

The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.

Liverpool FC — last 10: D-D-L-D-L-W-W-W-L-D (most recent first). That is 17 scored and 16 conceded, 1.70 and 1.60 per game. Both teams scored in 9 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-D-W-W-D across 5, 8 scored and 4 conceded.

Nottingham Forest FC — last 10: L-D-L-D-W-W-W-D-W-D (most recent first). That is 20 scored and 9 conceded, 2.00 and 0.90 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-W-W-W-D across 5, 15 scored and 6 conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

Across the 6 meetings on record, Liverpool FC have won 3, Nottingham Forest FC 2, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.

The most recent came on 22 Feb 2026: Nottingham Forest FC 0-1 Liverpool FC.

Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say

The model expects 1.77 goals in this fixture, below the Premier League norm of 2.84, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.

Liverpool FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.62 against 0.15. Both teams to score sits at 11.7%, and over 2.5 goals at 26.1% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.

Expected Goals & Probability Outlook

Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.

Market Model probability
Liverpool FC win 74.9%
Draw 22.5%
Nottingham Forest FC win 2.6%
Both teams to score 11.7%
Over 2.5 goals 26.1%

The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-0 at 27.1%, 2-0 at 22.3%, 0-0 at 17.6%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.

Published selections

  • First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 77% confidence. Liverpool's aggressive home style typically produces early breakthroughs in the first half.
  • Match Winner: Home Win — 72% confidence. Liverpool hold a strong home advantage against a low-scoring Nottingham Forest side based on current form metrics.
  • Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 72% confidence. Consistent with the main win market; Liverpool are heavily favored to claim all three points.
  • Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 65% confidence. Liverpool's dominant possession and wide attacks naturally generate a high volume of corners.
  • Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 61% confidence. Forest's defensive block will likely commit tactical fouls, pushing bookings over the threshold.
  • Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 59% confidence. Liverpool's superior attacking output makes them likely to lead by halftime at Anfield.
  • Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 58% confidence. Liverpool's high-scoring home profile (2 GF/game) supports a multi-goal match despite Forest's defensive setup.
  • Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 53% confidence. Nottingham Forest averages 0 goals per game away, suggesting Liverpool could keep a clean sheet.
  • Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 52% confidence. As Forest tires defensively, more spaces open up for Liverpool to score after the break.

Score Prediction & Verdict

Prediction: 1-0 — a Liverpool FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 27.1%.

Confidence: High. The model puts a Liverpool FC win at 74.9%, with the draw at 22.5%.

The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.

Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.

Published by Guaranteed Correct Score Tips · Premier League
Updated: Aug 24, 2026 05:48
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Markets modelled for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC

What each bet on this fixture actually is, and what has to happen for it to win.

Match Winner

A match winner pick backs one named team to win the game outright. This list ranks the ten upcoming fixtures where the model gives one side the highest chance of doing that — home wins and away wins only, because the draw is a separate outcome and is covered on the match preview rather than here.

How it settles: The pick wins if the named team is ahead when the 90 minutes are up. A draw loses, and extra time and penalties in cup ties are ignored: everything on this site is settled from the 90-minute score.

See today's Top 10 Win list →
Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 goals means the two teams combine for three goals or more. This list ranks the ten upcoming fixtures where the model has the strongest view on that line — normally high-scoring attacks, open defences, or leagues whose baseline goal rate runs above average.

How it settles: Three goals or more at full time wins an Over 2.5 pick; exactly two or fewer loses. Own goals count towards the total and, as everywhere on the site, only the 90 minutes are counted.

See today's Top 10 Over 2.5 list →
Both Teams To Score (GG)

Both Teams To Score — GG on most coupons — asks only whether each side finds the net at least once. Who wins is irrelevant, which is why the list often prefers two mid-table attacking sides over a one-sided fixture between a giant and a defensive minnow.

How it settles: Both teams must score at least one goal in the 90 minutes. 1-1, 2-1 and 3-2 all win; 2-0, 1-0 and 0-0 all lose. Own goals count for the team credited with the goal in the official record.

See today's Top 10 BTTS list →
First Half Over 0.5 Goals

This market asks a single question: will there be at least one goal before half time, by either team? It is the shortest question on the site, which is why the list is ranked against a much higher bar than the others.

How it settles: Any goal scored in the first half wins the pick, no matter who scores it. A goalless first half loses even if the second half produces five, because the market is settled on the half-time score alone.

See today's Top 10 1H Over 0.5 list →
Leading At Half Time

This list backs a named team to be ahead when the half-time whistle goes. It is not a bet on the final result: a side can lead at the break, lose the match, and the pick still wins.

How it settles: The named team must be in front on the half-time score. Level at the break loses, including 0-0, and the second half has no bearing on it.

See today's Top 10 HT Win list →
Over 8.5 Match Corners

This market counts every corner awarded to both teams across the match. Over 8.5 means nine or more. Corner volume tracks territory rather than quality, so the model favours attacking sides that spend the game pushing a deep-lying opponent back.

How it settles: Nine corners or more wins the pick; eight or fewer loses. Only corners actually taken are counted in the official record, and the total is settled from the league data feed once the match is complete.

See today's Top 10 Corners list →
Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards

This market counts the yellow cards shown to both teams across the match. Over 2.5 means three or more. Booking volume is driven by how a fixture is refereed and how often the two sides foul, which is why derbies and relegation matches sit near the top of the list.

How it settles: Three yellow cards or more wins the pick. The model counts yellows only, from the league data feed. Bookmakers that settle in booking points instead — commonly 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red — can grade the same match differently, so check the rule at your book before backing a card pick.

See today's Top 10 Cards list →
Most Scoring Half

Most Scoring Half asks which period of the match contains more goals: the first half, the second half, or neither, when both halves produce the same number. All goals by both teams are counted together, so this is a bet on the shape of the game rather than on who wins it.

How it settles: The half-time score gives the first-half total; the rest of the full-time score gives the second-half total. The larger total wins the pick, and Equal wins when the two are the same — including a 0-0, which counts as nil apiece rather than as no result.

See today's Top 10 Most Scoring Half list →

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC: frequently asked questions FAQ

Who is predicted to win in Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC?

Our expected-goals model's strongest call on this fixture is 1H Over 0.5 in the First Half Over 0.5 Goals market, at 77% modelled probability. That is a probability, not a forecast of a certainty.

What is the tactical preview and xG analysis for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC?

Our expected goals model projects 1.62 for Liverpool FC and 0.15 for Nottingham Forest FC, a combined 1.77 goals. Liverpool FC have taken D-D-L-D-L-W-W-W-L-D from their last 10 completed matches. Nottingham Forest FC have taken L-D-L-D-W-W-W-D-W-D from their last 10. Across 6 previous meetings on record, Liverpool FC have won 3, Nottingham Forest FC 2, with 1 drawn.

Which betting markets are modelled for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC?

This fixture is modelled in 8 markets: First Half Over 0.5 Goals, Match Winner, Over 8.5 Match Corners, Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards, Leading At Half Time, Over 2.5 Goals, Both Teams To Score (GG) and Most Scoring Half. Each is explained on this page, and the full set of selections and probabilities is in the model panel above.

When does Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC kick off?

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC in the Premier League kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:30 UTC. Every prediction on this page is settled from the 90-minute score.

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